Everything Is Predictable
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Krátky popis
Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and
amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact
of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his
theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice
and cards. But its implications soon became clear.Bayes' theorem
helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false
positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to
account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its
influence goes far beyond practical applications.A cornerstone of
rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and
forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who
outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue
that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of
almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of
rationality, and of the human brain.Fusing biography, razor-sharp
science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is
Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact
on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence,
Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have
far-reaching consequences.
Výber kníh autorov
Orion Publishing Co ,
Chivers Tom
Zobraziť všetky knihy autora
Orion Publishing Co,
Chivers Tom
Výber kníh vydavateľa
Slovart
Zobraziť všetky knihy vydavateľa
Slovart
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