The Art of Uncertainty
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Krátky popis
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the
UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven
guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a
world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what
we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play
in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting
data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what
might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives
readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging,
crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of
probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically
about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate
change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about
the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the
way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to
luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses
near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so
confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never,
ever been in the exact same order. Drawing on a wide range of
captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to
navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what
we do not know
Výber kníh autorov
Penguin Books Ltd ,
Spiegelhalter David
Zobraziť všetky knihy autora
Penguin Books Ltd,
Spiegelhalter David
Výber kníh vydavateľa
Slovart
Zobraziť všetky knihy vydavateľa
Slovart
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